Seasonal Flu Is Statistically Worse Than Coronavirus… Still
For those who may be worried or uncertain about this ongoing Coronavirus fiasco (and yes, it is a fiasco), I wanted to share some updated statistics to put your mind at ease and put into perspective what is happening in the world around you. As it stands, despite media hysteria and every imaginable form of propaganda to the contrary, the seasonal flu is statistically worse than Coronavirus. The seasonal flu has been and still is a greater threat to the globe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. This is not mere conjecture, speculation, or theory, but is mathematically provable. We are appealing to officially published data by the CDC, WHO and Johns Hopkins University. Should you take Coronavirus lightly? Of course not. Just as you shouldn’t take the flu lightly.
- All Coronavirus numbers cited were taken from the COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU).
- The flu statistics cited are readily available at the CDC and WHO websites as noted.
The World Health Organization anticipates from 290,000 – 650,000 deaths each year from Influenza related respiratory issues (i.e. deaths from seasonal flu). That is a margin of variance of 360,000 people. They fully anticipate and are not surprised if 360,000 more people die from one year to the next, and readily anticipate that up to 650,000 people are likely to die on any given year. That’s how uncertain the seasonal flu is. 360,000 people may or may not die, and yet you have never seen concern over “social distancing” in a bid to reduce that number. That number is 244% higher than the total Coronavirus deaths worldwide at the moment. You read that correctly: TWO HUNDRED AND FORTY-FOUR percent. But if the number of seasonal flu deaths increases by 360,000 people in a given year, it is simply taken for granted as a normal fluctuation.
As of today (according to Johns Hopkins University), worldwide Coronavirus deaths are ~150,000. This is less than half of the margin of variance for a given flu season according to the World Health Organization. What does this mean? Even if Coronavirus deaths were twice as high as they are right now, they would still fall well below the margin of variance for an average flu season and unless you knew it was Coronavirus, it would simply be another “ILI” (influenza like illness) death. When Coroanvirus death estimates are added to seasonal flu, it is still less severe than other flu seasons alone. This is especially relevant in the U.S. where more Coronavirus cases and deaths have been purported than any other country. And yet, despite this, when Coronavirus deaths are added to the 24,000 seasonal flu deaths estimated to have occurred this year, it is still less than the influenza death toll in the 2017-2018 season. The 2017-2018 flu season in the U.S.A. saw 61,000 deaths according to the CDC. And when looked at from a global perspective, unless this were being reported every 3 seconds, you wouldn’t even know it was happening. This is mathematically undeniable. Any objection to these statistics is purely emotional and therefore definitionally irrational. Take a look at this picture:
As of today there have been less than 700,000 total cases reported in the U.S. This includes people that were not hospitalized. Less than 110,000 people have been hospitalized from Coronavirus according to Johns Hopkins, but in the 2017-18 flu season in the U.S. over 800,000 people were hospitalized from influenza from approximately December – March. Where were all the complaints of hospitals being overloaded and understaffed when literally 8 times as many people were hospitalized in nearly the same time-frame two years ago? Generously adjusting for time, there would still have been as many as 400,000 hospitalizations in exactly the same time-frame; FOUR TIMES MORE than Coronavirus hospitalizations. And yet there was not a single report of hospitals being overwhelmed. Either we had bigger and better super-hospitals with super-nurses and super-doctors two years ago or propaganda is afoot. You can argue whether blues is better than jazz, but you can’t argue whether 2+2=4. 800,000 is a larger number than 110,000. If you wish to argue with that statement, you have lost all right to argue anything.
Of particular interest is that the CDC originally estimated that 80,000 people had died in 2017-18 before they modified the number to 61,000 people a year later. So, they thought it was even worse and publicly reported this. Yet, despite an official projection of 80,000 deaths from flu, the media never panicked and nobody ever mentioned “social distancing”. Why not? They believed that 80,000 people had died in the U.S. and their conclusion was simply, “Make sure to get that flu shot next year.” There was no lock-down, no quarantine, no social distancing; just business as usual despite a firm belief that 80,000 people had died in the U.S. alone. When the next year came (2018-19 flu season) why weren’t we in a greater panic given the previous year’s unseasonably high death toll? Why wasn’t Anthony Fauci warning the U.S. it was potentially going to be worse than the year before? Great question. Given Dr. Fauci’s involvement with the World Bank and the World Health Organization as a board member of their co-convened “Global Preparedness Monitoring Board”, I’m sure he has answers to all the questions. But be careful, if the Zuckerberg-ites and Co. don’t like a fact you share, they might label it “misinformation” or “fake news” and censor it in an ironic act of true fascism, because… you know…. they are the guardians of truth sent to protect you from things you’re too stupid to understand. Fauci saddled up to Zuckerberg pretty quickly; both of them attempting to thwart any “misinformation”. But, I digress.
They believed that 240% MORE people had died of seasonal flu than have been reported from Coronavirus and yet our response was what? NOTHING. Please hear that again. They believed that 240% MORE people had died from seasonal flu in 2018 than have been confirmed to have died from Coronavirus right now, and we didn’t know or care. I bet this is the first time you are reading some of these statistics.
Given that the CDC overestimated the flu death toll by 20,000 people only two years ago, it is possible and even probable that the Coronavirus numbers even as they are, are being highly overestimated. Deaths are being added to the Coronavirus tally at the mere presence of Coronavirus (sometimes with only symptoms) taking nothing else into consideration and before an adequate autopsy can even be performed. That’s not scientific, it’s ridiculous. As Stanford professor of statistics and epidemiology & population health, John P.A. Ioannidis noted in an article published by STAT,
In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for Coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise.”
Factoring in the 24,000 projected deaths from seasonal flu this year (according to the CDC), until or unless the U.S. death toll from Coronavirus surpasses (by a noticeable margin) 56,000 people, that combined total will still not have surpassed the 80,000 flu death projection from the CDC that nobody cared about in 2018. This means that for our reaction to be justified in light of the past inaction, we will have to have seen well over 22,000 more deaths from Coronavirus in the U.S. than at the time of this writing. Even if the death toll in the U.S. doubles from what it is right now, it will only marginally surpass what the CDC thought was the seasonal flu death toll only two years ago. Remember that? Of course you don’t. Because nobody was in a frenzy when the CDC casually reported that 80,000 people had died in the U.S. Did you ever read that Associated Press article? Do you even remember that report? Perhaps vaguely, if at all. That report alone calls into question everything you are witnessing right now and shows what an utter circus this has become. These actions and reactions are based on something other than objectively verifiable facts, or else our disposition has become grossly and arbitrarily overcautious in light of the 2017-2018 flu season.
Spain and Italy have both seen deaths decrease steadily for the past 2-3 weeks. And in the U.S. over 30% of all deaths are in one city; New York. Despite most other states being relatively unaffected, the entire United States is being treated as if we were all New York. I recently read a quote somewhere that said:
“Quarantine is when you restrict movement of sick people. Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people,”
As of today, the Coroanvirus is objectively, provably, statistically inferior to the seasonal flu you have always been aware of and never cared so much about. When the World Health Organization reported that up to 650,000 people are dying from the seasonal flu on any given year (GIVE OR TAKE 360,000 people) neither you nor the media batted an eyelash. When the CDC and the Associated Press reported that 80,000 Americans had died of the flu in 2018, neither you nor they batted an eyelash. The seasonal flu is still statistically worse.
So, why this reaction? Why, indeed. Whatever the motives, whatever the confusion, whatever the “reasoning”, one thing is for sure: The Lord God Almighty reigns unaffected and unsurprised…. yes, hear the words of Jesus:
“Therefore I say to you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink; nor about your body, what you will put on. Is not life more than food and the body more than clothing?… Which of you by worrying can add one cubit to his stature?… Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble.” (Matthew 6:25-34 [selected verses])