Seasonal Flu Is Statistically Worse Than Coronavirus… Still

cdc, coronavirus, seasonal flu

World Health Organization

 

For those who may be worried or uncertain about this ongoing Coronavirus fiasco (and yes, it is a fiasco), I wanted to share some updated statistics to put your mind at ease and put into perspective what is happening in the world around you. As it stands, despite media hysteria and every imaginable form of propaganda to the contrary, the seasonal flu is statistically worse than Coronavirus. The seasonal flu has been and still is a greater threat to the globe in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. This is not mere conjecture, speculation, or theory, but is mathematically provable. We are appealing to officially published data by the CDC, WHO and Johns Hopkins University. Should you take Coronavirus lightly? Of course not. Just as you shouldn’t take the flu lightly.

 

  • All Coronavirus numbers cited were taken from the COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU).
  • The flu statistics cited are readily available at the CDC and WHO websites as noted.

 

The World Health Organization anticipates from 290,000 – 650,000 deaths each year from Influenza related respiratory issues (i.e. deaths from seasonal flu). That is a margin of variance of 360,000 people. They fully anticipate and are not surprised if 360,000 more people die from one year to the next, and readily anticipate that up to 650,000 people are likely to die on any given year. That’s how uncertain the seasonal flu is. 360,000 people may or may not die, and yet you have never seen concern over “social distancing” in a bid to reduce that number. That number is 244% higher than the total Coronavirus deaths worldwide at the moment. You read that correctly: TWO HUNDRED AND FORTY-FOUR percent. But if the number of seasonal flu deaths increases by 360,000 people in a given year, it is simply taken for granted as a normal fluctuation.

As of today (according to Johns Hopkins University), worldwide Coronavirus deaths are ~150,000. This is less than half of the margin of variance for a given flu season according to the World Health Organization. What does this mean? Even if Coronavirus deaths were twice as high as they are right now, they would still fall well below the margin of variance for an average flu season and unless you knew it was Coronavirus, it would simply be another “ILI” (influenza like illness) death. When Coroanvirus death estimates are added to seasonal flu, it is still less severe than other flu seasons alone. This is especially relevant in the U.S. where more Coronavirus cases and deaths have been purported than any other country. And yet, despite this, when Coronavirus deaths are added to the 24,000 seasonal flu deaths estimated to have occurred this year, it is still less than the influenza death toll in the 2017-2018 season. The 2017-2018 flu season in the U.S.A. saw 61,000 deaths according to the CDC. And when looked at from a global perspective, unless this were being reported every 3 seconds, you wouldn’t even know it was happening. This is mathematically undeniable. Any objection to these statistics is purely emotional and therefore definitionally irrational. Take a look at this picture:

 

cdc, who, coronavirus

Coronavirus Statistics

 

As of today there have been less than 700,000 total cases reported in the U.S. This includes people that were not hospitalized. Less than 110,000 people have been hospitalized from Coronavirus according to Johns Hopkins, but in the 2017-18 flu season in the U.S. over 800,000 people were hospitalized from influenza from approximately December – March. Where were all the complaints of hospitals being overloaded and understaffed when literally 8 times as many people were hospitalized in nearly the same time-frame two years ago? Generously adjusting for time, there would still have been as many as 400,000 hospitalizations in exactly the same time-frame; FOUR TIMES MORE than Coronavirus hospitalizations. And yet there was not a single report of hospitals being overwhelmed. Either we had bigger and better super-hospitals with super-nurses and super-doctors two years ago or propaganda is afoot. You can argue whether blues is better than jazz, but you can’t argue whether 2+2=4. 800,000 is a larger number than 110,000. If you wish to argue with that statement, you have lost all right to argue anything.

Of particular interest is that the CDC originally estimated that 80,000 people had died in 2017-18 before they modified the number to 61,000 people a year later. So, they thought it was even worse and publicly reported this. Yet, despite an official projection of 80,000 deaths from flu, the media never panicked and nobody ever mentioned “social distancing”. Why not? They believed that 80,000 people had died in the U.S. and their conclusion was simply, “Make sure to get that flu shot next year.” There was no lock-down, no quarantine, no social distancing; just business as usual despite a firm belief that 80,000 people had died in the U.S. alone. When the next year came (2018-19 flu season) why weren’t we in a greater panic given the previous year’s unseasonably high death toll? Why wasn’t Anthony Fauci warning the U.S. it was potentially going to be worse than the year before? Great question. Given Dr. Fauci’s involvement with the World Bank and the World Health Organization as a board member of their co-convened “Global Preparedness Monitoring Board”, I’m sure he has answers to all the questions. But be careful, if the Zuckerberg-ites and Co. don’t like a fact you share, they might label it “misinformation” or “fake news” and censor it in an ironic act of true fascism, because… you know…. they are the guardians of truth sent to protect you from things you’re too stupid to understand. Fauci saddled up to Zuckerberg pretty quickly; both of them attempting to thwart any “misinformation”. But, I digress.

They believed that 240% MORE people had died of seasonal flu than have been reported from Coronavirus and yet our response was what? NOTHING. Please hear that again. They believed that 240% MORE people had died from seasonal flu in 2018 than have been confirmed to have died from Coronavirus right now, and we didn’t know or care. I bet this is the first time you are reading some of these statistics.

Given that the CDC overestimated the flu death toll by 20,000 people only two years ago, it is possible and even probable that the Coronavirus numbers even as they are, are being highly overestimated. Deaths are being added to the Coronavirus tally at the mere presence of Coronavirus (sometimes with only symptoms) taking nothing else into consideration and before an adequate autopsy can even be performed. That’s not scientific, it’s ridiculous. As Stanford professor of statistics and epidemiology & population health, John P.A. Ioannidis noted in an article published by STAT,

In some people who die from viral respiratory pathogens, more than one virus is found upon autopsy and bacteria are often superimposed. A positive test for Coronavirus does not mean necessarily that this virus is always primarily responsible for a patient’s demise.”

 

coronavirus vs seasonal flu

Associated Press (2018)

 

Factoring in the 24,000 projected deaths from seasonal flu this year (according to the CDC), until or unless the U.S. death toll from Coronavirus surpasses (by a noticeable margin) 56,000 people, that combined total will still not have surpassed the 80,000 flu death projection from the CDC that nobody cared about in 2018. This means that for our reaction to be justified in light of the past inaction, we will have to have seen well over 22,000 more deaths from Coronavirus in the U.S. than at the time of this writing. Even if the death toll in the U.S. doubles from what it is right now, it will only marginally surpass what the CDC thought was the seasonal flu death toll only two years ago. Remember that? Of course you don’t. Because nobody was in a frenzy when the CDC casually reported that 80,000 people had died in the U.S. Did you ever read that Associated Press article? Do you even remember that report? Perhaps vaguely, if at all. That report alone calls into question everything you are witnessing right now and shows what an utter circus this has become. These actions and reactions are based on something other than objectively verifiable facts, or else our disposition has become grossly and arbitrarily overcautious in light of the 2017-2018 flu season.

Spain and Italy have both seen deaths decrease steadily for the past 2-3 weeks. And in the U.S. over 30% of all deaths are in one city; New York. Despite most other states being relatively unaffected, the entire United States is being treated as if we were all New York. I recently read a quote somewhere that said:

“Quarantine is when you restrict movement of sick people. Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people,”

As of today, the Coroanvirus is objectively, provably, statistically inferior to the seasonal flu you have always been aware of and never cared so much about. When the World Health Organization reported that up to 650,000 people are dying from the seasonal flu on any given year (GIVE OR TAKE 360,000 people) neither you nor the media batted an eyelash. When the CDC and the Associated Press reported that 80,000 Americans had died of the flu in 2018, neither you nor they batted an eyelash. The seasonal flu is still statistically worse.

So, why this reaction? Why, indeed. Whatever the motives, whatever the confusion, whatever the “reasoning”, one thing is for sure: The Lord God Almighty reigns unaffected and unsurprised…. yes, hear the words of Jesus:

“Therefore I say to you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink; nor about your body, what you will put on. Is not life more than food and the body more than clothing?… Which of you by worrying can add one cubit to his stature?… Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about its own things. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble.” (Matthew 6:25-34 [selected verses])

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Joshua Chavez

A slave of Christ. My name is Joshua Chavez.

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17 Responses

  1. Victoria says:

    Great article Joshua. The UK is the same. We have even turned into a quasi-police state with drones being used to monitor some areas and some officers are just making up their own interpretation of the new regulations. Every Thursday nearly the whole country comes out of their houses to clap the National Health Service. The ‘we’re all in this together’ mantra coupled with the daily death toll being annouced on the 6 o’clock news every day just feels like propganda. We’re not allowed to have church, there are no marriages and we can’t even have our families in our homes. It’s astounding what fear can do to people without Christ. Thank the Lord we can rejoice knowing Jesus lives forevermore and He holds the keys of Death and Hades.

    And do not fear those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. Rather fear him who can destroy both soul and body in hell. – Matthew 10v28

    Blessings.

  2. Anitha says:

    Amen, Joshua. Thanks for writing this. Having a proper perspective with all the facts is very important. Glory to God for your diligence in this matter.

  3. Ernest says:

    It is a shame that we let numbers run our lives instead of prayer. Thanks for the breakdown. Governments love lies. The New Mexico govenor loves to terroize people.

  4. Nathan Dunning says:

    Thank you for sharing these facts with us. Hopefully we can stop the madness soon.

  5. Angus McCreesh says:

    Thanks Joshua! Numbers used accurately do not lie!
    We are being manipulated for an evil purpose !
    Jesus is LORD !

  6. Judele Oshea says:

    I live in Australia and this is the first time I have seen those statistics but I am not surprised. Thank you Joshua for bringing this truth to our attention. I agree with you too Angus McCreesh….there is something sinister behind all this…CONTROL maybe!!! Blessings

  7. Brian Burmeister says:

    I get so tired of debunking the flu-coronavirus myths, but here is the actual data from the CDC on the Flu:

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
    CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been:
    39,000,000 – 56,000,000
    flu illnesses

    18,000,000 – 26,000,000
    flu medical visits

    410,000 – 740,000
    flu hospitalizations

    24,000 – 62,000
    flu deaths

    Ok. Now here is the latest on the coronavirus here in the U.S.: (as of 9:00 CST on 4/25/20)

    905,364 infections in the U.S.
    51,956 deaths.

    It takes 39,000,000 to 56,000,000 infections to produce somewhere between 24,000 to 62,000 deaths, yet it has only take 905,364 infections to gives us 51,956 deaths. Clearly there is no comparison between the two. The coronavirus is vastly more deadly. Also, it has taken the flu from Oct. 2019 to April 2020 to cause the kind of deaths that it has, but yet the coronavirus has needed only two months to wreak the kind of havoc that it has, and it is no where near to being done. Coronavirus will either continue on until every human has it, and has developed anti-bodies in everyone who has survived, or we develop an effective vaccine (highly unlikely).

    Never the less, keep up the good work Joshua!!

  8. RitaMerritt says:

    Joshua,I want to thank-you for standing firm in the Lord.I have seen you on you-tube for a while.ai have been searching for truth ,not knowing which direction to go,(believe me I have checked out multitudes)I have taken the wrong path on many occasins,The Lord even in my darkness has as it seems been leading me through the hot,dry desert,falling over many rocks.His compassion and kindness overwhelming,overflowing.I have at times seen myself standing on the edge of the cliff,felt the cold chill of the deceiver;but through it all,the day dawns,the fog is clearing.I Thank my Lord first and foremost,eternity not enough time to praise HIM!!!MY RISEN LORD-ALLELUIA!!!To thank him also for faithful brothers like yourself,Jacob,Marco and Pavia also. I can hear Jacob say now, “Blessings In Jesus,my dear brothers and sisters,”makes me feel like I have come home.Thank-you,God Bless and God’s speed.Keep looking with Jesus and being His helper in bringing each and every lost sheep home.Pray for me and my family? I have so much more to learn and better yet to live and walk In His Name.

  9. Stephen Wilderspin says:

    Sadly, the USA will find in the next 3 months that Covid-19 is very far from being like the flu. Just wait till exponential growth hits the country at large, as it will. A sadly misinformed article.

  10. John Boyd says:

    It seems you are taking a statistic and indiscriminately running with it to make your point. The 650,000 number on the CDC website is a worldwide “estimate” and the website specifically states that MOST of these are occurring in very poor countries in Africa and Asia. These estimated (not necessarily documented or confirmed) deaths are predominately occurring in areas where health care and living conditions are so poor that the mortality rate of any disease is amplified.

    Regarding the US, sources estimate that the number of people who die in the US from flu-related causes in the US is 8,000 to 20,000 per year. (https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/qa/how-many-people-die-from-the-flu-each-year-in-the-us). In comparison, as of this writing, the coronavirus has killed over 113,000 people in the US in only FOUR MONTHS. And it is not done.

    You made the comment that “And until 650,000 people die from coronavirus in a year, it is vastly inferior.” Well, on a worldwide basis the number is now over 420,000 in only four months. I’m not a betting man, but I certainly would not take a bet that those numbers to not go over 650,000.

    I suggest that you talk to some people on the front lines – working in the hospitals with these people. The doctors and nurses I talk to do not see this as “vastly inferior to the flu”.

  11. Roger Souden says:

    I appreciate both your and Jacobs teaching and articles of news and scriptural truth – and I understand why you wrote this article when you did. Like the last two commenters, I see that this virus continues to create confusion and distress worldwide – and the numbers we are given suggest that this will continue for some months, at least.

    Currently 560,000 deaths worldwide, 136,000 in the US alone – in approx a 6 month period. We live in NZ where some say we have this virus under control – time will tell.

    I have seen the terms ‘scamdemic’ and plandemic’ used – there may be truth in that, I don’t know for sure, for that to be true, there would need to be worldwide compliance amongst thousands of individuals – and especially amongst health and scientific workers who are dealing with sufferers and virus sample testing. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Whatever the source of this virus, we can be very sure that Almighty God can, will and is using this worldwide uncertainty for His purposes and ultimately for His Glory. Is this one of the plagues spoken of in scripture prophecy for the end time period shortly before the return of Lord Jesus ? Only God knows.

    We must continue watching for the signs given in scripture, we should continue abiding in Lord Jesus – trusting in God our Heavenly Father, and receiving wisdom, counsel and discernment through the indwelling Holy Spirit. We should remain ready and continuing in the works that He has prepared for each one of us who is His, sharing the Gospel of the Kingdom with as many as will receive.

    The scripture verses you posted at the end of your article Joshua are very apt and appropriate.

    Thank you for sharing, and may God bless your walk as you focus on Him and His Messiah, Lord Jesus.

  12. Roger Souden says:

    I appreciate both your and Jacobs teaching and articles of news and scriptural truth – and I understand why you wrote this article when you did. Like the last two commenters, I see that this virus continues to create confusion and distress worldwide – and the numbers we are given suggest that this will continue for some months, at least.

    Currently 595,000 deaths worldwide, 141,000 in the US alone – in approx a 6 month period. We live in NZ where some say we have this virus under control – time will tell.

    I have seen the terms ‘scamdemic’ and plandemic’ used – there may be truth in that, I don’t know for sure, for that to be true, there would need to be worldwide compliance amongst thousands of individuals – and especially amongst health and scientific workers who are dealing with sufferers and virus sample testing. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Whatever the source of this virus, we can be very sure that Almighty God can, will and is using this worldwide uncertainty for His purposes and ultimately for His Glory. Is this one of the plagues spoken of in scripture prophecy for the end time period shortly before the return of Lord Jesus ? Only God knows.

    We must continue watching for the signs given in scripture, we should continue abiding in Lord Jesus – trusting in God our Heavenly Father, and receiving wisdom, counsel and discernment through the indwelling Holy Spirit. We should remain ready and continuing in the works that He has prepared for each one of us who is His, sharing the Gospel of the Kingdom with as many as will receive.

    The scripture verses you posted at the end of your article Joshua are very apt and appropriate.

    Thank you for sharing, and may God bless your walk as you focus on Him and His Messiah, Lord Jesus.

  13. Henrique says:

    Hi Joshua, may the God’s piece be with you. Do you think it’s worth to revisit data at this moment? God bless.

  14. Stephen Wilderspin says:

    This articles looks sadly misinformed and misleading now. Perhaps you should admit that you were wrong. 3000 a day is not the end. Over 300,000 deaths in total in less than a year.

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